As important as the US presidential election is to the world, it is impossible to separate out this one variable from the host of others that drive markets day-to-day, month-to-month and year-to-year.
The state of the international economy, the commodity price cycle, geopolitical events such as wars and trade disputes, natural disasters and pandemics, technological change, regulation and demography will all play their part too.
Ultimately, as much as we are drawn to stories or narratives, it is not who occupies the White House that determines market performance. By focusing on this to plot the likely path of stock prices, you risk ending up extracting bogus patterns from what is just random noise.
Stock markets have rewarded long-term investors no matter who is in the White House, it is why we focus on a disciplined, globally diversified investment approach as part of a wider financial plan. To find out more, we are offering our Second Opinion Service free of charge until the end of the year.
Barry O'Neill is an Investment Director at Carbon and can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org
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